RESEARCH

High-resolution population estimation using household survey data and building footprints

The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. In this study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model leveraging recent household surveys and building footprints to produce up-to-date population estimates. We estimate population totals and age and sex breakdowns with associated uncertainty measures within grid cells of approximately 100 m in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where the last census was completed in 1984. The model exhibits a very good fit, with an R2 value of 0.79 for out-of-sample predictions of population totals at the microcensus-cluster level and 1.00 for age and sex proportions at the province level. This work confirms the benefits of combining household surveys and building footprints for high-resolution population estimation in countries with outdated censuses.

Authors Gianluca Boo, Edith Darin, Douglas R. Leasure, Claire A. Dooley, Heather R. Chamberlain, Attila N. Lázár, Kevin Tschirhart, Cyrus Sinai 3,4, Nicole A. Hoff, Trevon Fuller, Kamy Musene, Arly Batumbo, Anne W. Rimoin & Andrew J. Tatem
Source Nature
Published 2022
Full publication

More publications

Microplanning: A promising approach to identify and reach zero-dose children in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

This case study examines microplanning approaches as a key component in the Mashako Plan 2.0 to revitalize routine immunization strategies in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

GRID3 Impact Report 2017-2022

This impact report provides an overview of GRID3’s activities and successes during the program’s first phase, between 2017 and 2022. It highlights key milestones, achievements, and selected use cases from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Zambia. The […]

The Population Seen from Space: When Satellite Images Come to the Rescue of the Census

Great steps have been made in recent decades in observing the Earth from the sky. Landscapes and infrastructure can now be mapped at an extremely fine spatial scale. These data—particularly useful to geographers—can also benefit demographers. By combining observations of […]